el-erian@pimco: germany in a lose-lose situation
--- liquidity versus solvency: nos amis ricains ne nous ont-ils pas déjà fait le coup récemment? au moins eux n'ont pas posé un ultimatum à 2013 pour que leurs banques finissent de cicatriser grâce à une courbe des taux superbement raide et à quelques pansements comptables http://www.pimco.com/Pages/GermanyinaLose-LoseSituation.aspx ---
- The problem is that the current approach – centred on dealing with liquidity problems now and solvency issues later – is not working.
- A liquidity approach that delays the day of reckoning may be good regional politics, but it's bad economics. It does not restore sustainable growth to the periphery, and it exposes the core to contamination.
- Rather than simply doubling up on a faltering liquidity approach, the time has come for Germany to lead a more holistic solution focused on addressing the periphery’s debt overhang and competitiveness problems.
[…]
This is not the first time that Germany faces such a dilemma. After the fall of the Berlin wall, West Germany judged that good politics trumped bad economics, and agreed to reunify with much-weaker East Germany at a one-to-one exchange rate. It took years to overcome the costs of this decision.
